Economic Cycles, Stock Market Crashes and the Scary Scenarios

Here we are ready to inaugurate a new president in 2017 and our stock markets are at all-time highs after a huge ‘Trump Bounce’ after the election. Many that study stock market history admit that we are in a need for a pull back as the DOW is almost ready to break 20,000 pts. What does all this mean?

Well, many analysts are suggesting it is very possible we could get a market correction in mid to late 2017 and that it could be 10-20% by the time it is done, the longer this nonsense goes on, and the bigger the bubble builds then the bigger the drop, we are over bought, almost everywhere. Then all that money printed that ended up inflating emerging markets will look for safe haven, coming back here in the short term. As those go one-by-one, that money flies out, because the money is looking for the nicest looking house (for now) in a majorly bad neighborhood, look at the EU, Japan, Middle East, India, and who knows what the hell China’s real numbers are, they have one thing going for them, they own our debt – but that might not be worth much if things go on. All that money coming back to safe haven in the US will cause inflation here, but at what cost?

Cheap loans, another bubble burst and look at the Student Loan issues 35% in default (past 90-days) and cheap car loans is only producing higher repo rates which are hidden by increased sales figures. It’s all lipstick on a big pig, socialism doesn’t work and you can’t have utopia unless you build it, and that takes capitalism which we are crushing into next week for the falsehood of cronyism. But I digress.

If we don’t get a back pedal on the stock market soon, it will all come at once, and 2008 was 8-years ago remember? That wasn’t a recovery that I’d be bragging about – basically we’ve increased regulations, size of government, and cut our military – all very stupid things to do in the present period. We are digging a hole, and I assume when if it starts to fall apart the left will blame capitalism and get their people back into power – and they will just make things worse – this seems to be a repeating problem with humanity doesn’t it? That is what socialists always attempt to do, but it all collapses anyway – Venezuela, Argentina, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Zimbabwe, hell, how about that Arab Spring a few years ago, still in shambles – Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, who’s next? Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia? Civil unrest, food shortages, people will demand what was promised and take down their governments to get what’s left. Beware the socialist mobs. But I keep digressing.

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Cleveland Has A Better Chance Than Chicago To Return To The World Series

The youth of the Cubs, epitomized by the selection of Kris Bryant as the National League Most Valuable Player, has many people discussing a return to the World Series next year and beyond for the team from Chicago’s North Side. In actuality, it seems that their opponents in this past Fall Classic are more likely than the Cubs to reach it again in 2017.

Several key members of the Cubs are facing free agency, most notably closer Aroldis Chapman and leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler. Postseason pitching hero Jon Lester will return, but veteran battery mate David Ross has retired. The loss of his personal long time catcher, who was brought over from Boston to Chicago primarily at Lester’s request, may cause the left hander to be less effective in 2017.

Cleveland, on the other hand, will be adding a star player to a lineup that managed to somehow win the pennant without him. Outfielder Michael Brantley, the team’s M.V.P. in 2015, will return after missing nearly all of last season due to injury. They will also get back catcher Yan Gomes, who missed much of the season as well. The path to the playoffs promises to be easier for Cleveland next season. Two of the perennial powers that rival the Indians in the American League Central division, Detroit and Chicago, are going to be considerably weaker as they enter rebuilding mode. The Tigers are looking to trade veterans such as Julio Iglesias and Ian Kinsler in hopes of getting top prospects, and the White Sox are marketing ace left hander Chris Sale and center fielder Adam Eaton.

Also weaker are the teams the Indians breezed through in the playoffs, which saw Cleveland win seven of the eight games in the two rounds. Boston, who was swept in three games by Cleveland, will very likely miss the presence of “Big Papi” David Ortiz. The perennial All-star and likely Hall of Fame designated hitter retired after the season.

Toronto, who was dispatched by Cleveland in five games in the Championship Series, will be losing at least one of its key sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Both All-Stars are free agents this winter, and each will command contracts so large that it would be impossible for the Blue Jays to sign the duo.

On the other hand, the Cubs’ most probable playoff opponents are likely going to be stronger. Washington, which finished behind Chicago for most victories last season, is seeking to acquire Sale from the White Sox. That acquisition would strengthen an already formidable starting rotation, anchored by Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. The Nationals are also on target to sign Fowler away from Chicago. The Dodgers, who came just two games from wresting the pennant from the Cubs, are actively pursuing several power hitters that could push them over Chicago in the playoffs. Milwaukee outfielder and former National League M.V.P Ryan Braun continues to be linked in possible trades with Los Angeles.

While there is no doubt that the Cubs will be the favorites to win the pennant again in 2017, Cleveland might be an even better bet to repeat. After all, they won it last year without two of its best players, both of whom should be healthy in the spring.

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Private Jet Detailing And Aircraft Cleaning Entrepreneurs Have Good News

The general aviation sector has been in the doldrums for quite a while. Some blame this on increased FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) regulations, much of which occurred after 9-11 to protect airports from potential terrorists, unfortunately these increased security requirements and increased regulations have stifled the general aviation (GA) sector. The economic crashes of 2000 and 2008 didn’t help, although in 2003 the economy was flying high thanks to Bush Tax Cuts and stimulus, then it hit a wall again and didn’t really do well until the run-up just before the 2008 crash.

The GA sector has only slightly recovered since then but not back to its 2003 highs. When Obama got elected he railed against Corporate Jets and Corporate Fat Cats which hurt jet sales and new aircraft sales. Remember when congress went after the Auto Makers for flying their corporate jets to Washington DC to beg for bailouts? Public sentiment against GA was at an all-time low. All of this had hurt aircraft cleaners and jet detailers – it made it tough to make money, but it looks like things are changing and the number of GA Aircraft is increasing. This new Trump Administration is pro-Aviation unlike the Obama Administration. Cutting corporate taxes will also help GA and jet sales. It looks like clear skies ahead for those in the General Aviation services business.

There was a great article in AIN – Aircraft International News – December Edition titled; “UBS Bizjet Index Sees Post-election Surge,” by Chad Trautvetter posted on December 12, 2016 which noted the following facts; The new Trump Administration in the U.S. is widely seen as a positive, with 61 percent of those surveyed expecting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election to ultimately be positive for the business jet market, while 11 percent don’t see a positive impact and 28 percent are uncertain. In fact the article went on to note that there was an increase of between 44-49% increased orders for private jets over last year. Many of those aircraft will be delivered by 2018, and the backlog will increase used aircraft sales and current new inventory. More aircraft certainly means more aircraft to clean and more new aircraft means more corporate detailing customers as well. Meanwhile, along with the fractional jet market, we see jet air-taxi services on the increase as well as Uber style aircraft ride-sharing plans smaller companies can buy into. All of this means the GA sector is ready to take off again and that’s good for business.

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10 Ways Entrepreneurs Can Change the Social & Economic Story

Men and women who create for-profit and nonprofit new ventures can and should do things of the kind that the President-Elect is likely to neglect, negate, or avoid. Entrepreneurs can quietly change the story, one organization at a time, whatever government may or may not do.

Here are ten ways venture founders can alter the course implied by what we know of Donald Trump’s intentions. They are all within our own authority, not those of government. We can:

  1. actively appreciate the economic and social needs of disadvantaged groups and consider how our own organization can make a difference-or start a new one that can; at least ensure that our own organization does not contribute to disadvantage;
  2. be inquisitive about rural and underserved populations adversely impacted by political, economic and tech change-and examine ways that our organization can make a positive contribution, including the offer of products, services or employment;
  3. create inclusive policies on gender, gender identity, race, national origin & religion; offer all employees dignity & respect, provide healthcare, parental leave, clear policies on sexual harassment, & the opportunity for participation in decision-making and sharing organizational success;
  4. take the opportunity to participate in the life of local communities to mutual advantage, through direct civic engagement, as well as supporting employee volunteering; become involved in community supported enterprises;
  5. evaluate all practices of the organization that may contribute directly or indirectly to climate change-and introduce ways that will reduce pollution; seek to be powered by clean energy and move to zero waste;
  6. ensure that the pay ratio between the highest and lowest paid members of the organization does not exceed 20:1 (as it was in 1965) to reduce financial inequity, given that the ratio between average American CEO pay and worker pay is now 303:1;
  7. re-examine the consequences of all purchasing decisions, in order to avoid pain and hardship, either in supplier organizations or the local and global community; research supplier behaviors on socio-economic parameters;
  8. commit to support the lifelong learning of all members of the organization, regardless of where they are starting or what position they hold-through internal development programs and external qualifications;
  9. employ socially responsible financial policies that do not disfavor any stakeholder, either close at hand or nationally, as well as avoiding immoral or self-serving practices, such as the avoidance of repatriating foreign profits;
  10. build a widely communicated progressive corporate story that is reflected through the behaviors of everyone in the organization and enshrined in all official organizational procedures; regularly monitor its reality.
  11. GEI scores 137 countries on 14 pillars of a healthy entrepreneurship ecosystem

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Tips For Buying And Maintaining Shoes

Choosing a good pair of shoes and taking good care of it is an art. This article has some basic tips for you to maintain the quality of your favorite shoes. Hopefully, this will help you make your shoes stand the test of time.

1. When buying shoes

When should you try your shoes before buying them? Well, ideally, you should try them in the evening. This is because your feet are slightly bigger in size in the evening. Go to your desired store in the evening, put on the shoes you want to try and then walk around to see how you feel in them.

If you have to move around a lot during the day, we suggest that you go for instant heels as these shoes distribute your weight evenly and you feel comfortable.
2. Posture and gait

What is the right way to walk? Proper gait can make your body appear slimmer, especially if you are a woman. The idea is to keep your feet straight when walking. For each step, you may want to hold a bit long striding. Keep in mind that improper gait and posture will make you feel less comfortable while walking and it may also make your shoes wear and tear faster. Usually, the biggest reason why people don’t feel comfortable while walking is that the shoes are not the right fit for them.

3. Cleaning the shoes

For wiping stains from your leather shoes, you can use banana peels. Actually, banana peels contain certain ingredients that make it easier for you to remove stains from your shoes. On the other side, you can also go for milk to wipe the surface of the shoes.

Another good cleaning agent is vinegar. It will clean your shoes and make them shine. The great thing about vinegar is that it is better than most of traditional cleaning methods.

4. Leather shoes Upkeep

Shoes made from leather tend to get stiff. In order to soften leather shoes, you can opt for a quality absorbent pad. However, keep in mind that this method should be used occasionally as the regular use may reduce the life of your shoes.

If your leather shoes are stiff, you can cut a potato in half and dip it in the lemon juice and then clean the surface of the shoes with it. Keep in mind that placing the shoes near fire is not recommended after the application of the cleaning method.
5. Drying Wet Shoes

If your shoes get wet, lime powder is a good agent to dry them out. Lime power will also give your shoes a sweet smell. For fur shoes, you can try a dryer, and this is an ideal method for drying shoes in winter.

So, these are a few tips that you can use to buy shoes pair of shoes and then take care of them so that they will stand the test of time. Keep in mind that buying expensive shoes is not a big deal. The big deal is to take care of their maintenance and make them last longer.

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